from Helsinki, Finland
We already know that the consequences of COVID-19 have and will hit the most vulnerable ones of our societies the hardest. This applies also in the context of education. The global health crises has exposed the unequal access to education in different countries as well as the various inadequacies embedded in the education systems. The education debt that follows the worldwide school closures is enormous. Yet, many have not realised the seriousness of COVID-19’s effect on education loss, stability of the future economy, or violence and conflict. This article sheds light on the scope of various issues that result from school closures caused by the pandemic with a particular focus on the economic and human consequences. It also suggests political, economic, and educational measurements that should be accounted for during the recovery process.
COVID-19, school closures and the education debt
The disruption of education because of COVID-19 is probably the largest in history as it has affected over 1,6 billion learners around the world (UN 2020). By the end of April 2020, closures of educational institutions had taken place in over 180 states (UNESCO 2020). According to the UN, this has impacted 94% of the world’s student population, and even up to 99% in low and lower-middle income countries (United Nations, 2020). Consequently, some children risk dropping out of school permanently (UN 2020). This has resulted in loss of learning as education has either become partial, postponed, or even non-existent.
According to the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, there are various reasons for the learning loss, for example lack of access to tools of remote studying, reduction in time spent in school activity, and issues of mental health and stress caused by the uncertainty and limited social contacts (Di Pietro et al., 2020). Additionally, some children would normally benefit from special assistance, which is now harder to provide, while others have difficulties in adapting to new learning environments in general. School closures have thus resulted in what could be called ‘education debt’. This refers to not only the excessive financial debt that follows the pandemic, but also the immaterial loss of education and skills that need to be compensated for in the future. In fact, education loss threatens to wipe out years of progress in facilitating children’s access to education and reducing child poverty (UNICEF 2020).
Remote teaching, but for whom?
The educational community has been faced with a challenge of finding ways to ensure the continuity of schooling during these unprecedented times. Various measures of remote and online teaching were quickly adapted in order to ensure the continuation of learning in distance. For example, Italy has been adopting distance learning support measures in order to equip schools with digital platforms that can facilitate distance learning during lock downs (Republic of Italy 2020). However, this is a privilege of wealthier countries. Many states have not been capable, or willing, to direct money towards education, and in some countries educational institutions have never been under public funding as they are mainly run by private entities.
Additionally, even within wealthier countries, there are great differences in children’s access to education. The family’s socio-economic background impacts the parents’ capability of supporting their offspring during the pandemic. For example, families where financial struggles or parent’s sudden unemployment, or overemployment, take place, logically have more difficulties in supporting the children’s learning as the pandemic becomes a question of survival. Students from more advantaged backgrounds are also more likely to attend private schools and high quality educational institutions where teachers have higher levels of digital skills and/or that have better Virtual Learning Environments (ICT-based infrastructures) for students (Giorgio Di Pietro et al. 2020). As the OECD report notes, “the most marginalised groups, who don’t have access to digital learning resources or lack the resilience and engagement to learn on their own, are at risk of falling behind” (Schleicher 2020).
Economic impact of school closures
School closures create learning loss which leads to skills loss, which further impacts the productivity of people when inside the job market (Hanushek & Woessmann 2020). By using historical growth regression, Hanushek and Woessmann have estimated that the current impact of the education loss might result in the global GDP being 1,5% lower than on average during the remaining century (Schleicher 2020). This is only the current impact, that is to say the education loss of the people currently enrolled in schools. It does not thus cover the ones who are supposed to be starting soon, nor the wider impact that would follow if the education disruption continues.
One year delay in schooling might not seem significant for one person or a group, however, when it concerns the entire cohort of people in schools, we are talking about a group of millions of people. The economic impact for states, the economic markets, and the wider work community is critical as the education debt keeps piling up. The ugly truth is that “countries will continue to face reduced economic well-being, even if their schools immediately return to pre-pandemic levels of performance” (Schleicher 2020). To give an example, if the students in the US schools during the 2020 closures record even a one-tenth of a standard deviation (that is, variation of dispersion in the set of values) in their corona-induced loss of skills, and assuming all students would return to previous levels immediately afterwards, the 1.5% skills loss regarding the future GDP would equal to an economic loss of USD 15,3 trillion (Hanushek and Woessmann 2020).
Cuts in education funds and the financial education debt
On top of school closures, public and private funds have been directed to health and economy sectors which has in some countries meant cutting in education funds (Schleicher 2020). This builds on top of the economic crises in our recent past that have had a bearing on some educational systems already. Additionally, in the future, spending on education might be further compromised as other ‘pressing issues’ might be prioritised to secure the global community’s attempts in recovering from the pandemic. Cuts on education funds will reflect the hardest on the marginalised members of the societies since equitable access to education is already greatly dependent on funding by governments. This would further intensify COVID-19’s negative impact on both our current cohort of students and the future generations.
Economic consequences of COVID’s school restrictions are thus horrendous. OECD predicted that “even if a second wave of infections is avoided, global economic activity is expected to fall by 6% in 2020, with average unemployment in OECD countries climbing to 9.2%, from 5.4% in 2019” (OECD 2020). This prediction has only gotten worse as the second wave of the pandemic is upon us. One should also understand that unemployment has an impact on education as education is dependent on tax income. Somewhat paradoxically, education “is also the key to tomorrow’s tax income” (Schleicher 2020). Therefore, the education debt that results from the COVID-19 pandemic and the cutting of education funds is going to impact the present and the future of our current generations at school.
Domestic violence against children
As mentioned, worldwide school closures are reflected in millions of children being trapped in their homes. As children have been locked out of schools, risks concerning domestic violence have risen while the access to help has become harder. In many countries, schools are a crucial channel between child protection services, and the children in need of help. With school closures, this safety net has been removed, or at least it has become much harder to access. For example, in Finland the number of child welfare notifications in April 2020 decreased occasionally by 30% compared to April 2019 (Koivisto, et al. 2020). As many of the notifications are usually made by teachers and other childcare specialists, the decline allegedly followed the limited access to the welfare system and has been described as the “silent emergency”. The real impact of the school closure on children’s physical and mental well-being remains to be seen.
Domestic violence is particularly concerning regarding young girls. Cases of female genital mutilation (FGM) have reportedly been growing around the world, and in particular in Africa (Batha 2020; Dijkstra 2020). WHO has estimated that the financial costs of health care required by women suffering with conditions caused by FGM amount to USD 1.4 billion, annually (WHO 2020). Additionally, sexual exploitation has been rising as people have been selling sex in order to cover basic needs of their families (Albrectsen and Giannini, 2020). Moreover, Save the Children estimates that the pandemic has caused 2,5 million girls to be at risk of child marriage before 2025 while a million girls are estimated to get pregnant solely during 2020 (Save the Children 2020). The implications of violence against girls and school dropouts is logically going to reflect on their future education and employment, which is going to augment the future education debt.
Risk of increasing recruitment of child soldiers
It is estimated that between 250,000 and 300,000 children are associated with armed forces or armed groups, and that 40% of these children are girls (Drumbl and Barrett 2019). This estimate took place before the COVID-19 pandemic, thus it does not include the possible impact of school closures and education debt on conflict recruitment. This number might indeed increase in the near future if we believe various studies on conflict research. Youth unemployment rate and lower levels of education are likely to result in horizontal inequalities between various actors within a state (Stewart 2011), which can encourage violent encounters. In fact, ‘when cultural differences coincide with economic and political differences between groups, [they] can cause deep resentment that may lead to violent struggles’ (Stewart & Brown 2007). Accordingly, recruitment of child soldiers could increase which would further the risk of conflict escalation and the intensification and prolongation of existing ones.
Compensating for education debt during the recovery period
Policy makers need to comprehend the role of education on future employment and economic stability. The COVID-19 recovery policies need to take into account measures that compensate for the education loss and recognise the disparities between children from different socio-economic backgrounds. Consequently, funding for education institutions should be ensured as investing in the current generation at schools pays back in the future. Additionally, the educational community and experts should continue in finding innovative and alternative methods for distance learning in order to secure the continuum of learning during this and possible future crises. Moreover, the risk of gender-based violence and exploitation of children cannot be ignored as their wider consequences are long lasting and might even cause lives. The authorities should thus ensure children have easy access to help at any second of the day.
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Image by: Aaron Burden
Author of the Article*: Sini M. Kuutamo, expert in Human Rights and International Law of the think tank Trinità dei Monti. BA (Hons) in Politics and International Relations with French at the University of Kent. Current Master’s student in Global Governance Law at the University of Helsinki.
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